The world is slowly but surely beginning to open up – thanks to the availability of vaccines and social distancing measures in most countries. While a return to normal still feels some way off, we look at how global economies are shaping up in the second half of 2021 and beyond.

We have divided our findings into two categories – macro asset classes and consumer patterns. Both offer different perspectives on how economies are recovering post-pandemic.

Macro Asset Class Indicators

• Overall inflation is projected to increase by 3% by the end of the year 2021.
• Global GDP rose by 4.6% in first half of 2021 – signifying significant global economic recovery.
• The Covid-19 impact on jobs and businesses is expected to diminish to some extent in second half of 2021, which will enable a 6.5% annualized rise in global economy – led mostly by Europe and other emerging markets in Asia.
• With the help of vaccines, we will witness a sharp increase in the growth of commodities that rely on sustainable systems. More and more companies and startups are already taking the eco-friendly routes to do business.
• The global demand for oil will soar by around 4.6 MBD (million barrels per day) with the Gulf region in the center of it.
• Recovery of earnings is accelerating globally as businesses are venturing into the expansion phase.
• Cryptocurrencies are expected to attract plenty of investments, with its blockchain technology poised to improve the currency’s security, scale and transaction pace.

Consumer Class Indicators

• We expect positive consumer spending patterns going into the second half of 2021 and the entirety 2022, with personal expenditures forecasted to be up by 20%
• The clothing and footwear industry is expected to grow 21% year on year – with Denim leading the pack after slumping during the pandemic.
• We forecast a return to normal of brick-and-mortar stores going into the second half of 2021.
• With Covid restrictions easing, we expect restaurants to operate at 75% capacity by 2022 second half.
• Ski resorts and winter destinations are doing well, and we expect this trend to continue going into late 2021 and 2022.
• Existing home supply remains tight, especially in the luxury segment where prices are rising in places like Dubai, London and much of the US.
• The education industry is expected to transition further into the virtual realm of learning. Both Institutes and pupils are investing in digital technologies.

Despite a gloomy forecast by leading institutions worldwide on economic recovery, the world is embracing normalcy; albeit gradually. With the $24 trillion in borrowing to finance the recovery, the debt crisis, which is at an all-time high of $281 trillion, will need some time to fade away.

We predict the world economy to be back on track but it will be stuck in the low gear for at least the next 3 years.